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Oil spill: How bad it could get

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Post by FystyAngel Fri Jun 04, 2010 7:56 pm

Oil spill: How bad it could get
Oil spill: How bad it could get Oil_cu10
Likley path of the oil for four months following the spill. The colors represent the concentration of the oil. 0.20 (dark red) means the oil is 20% as concentrated as it is directly over the spill site.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The bad news is: Things in the Gulf of Mexico could get a whole lot worse.

So far, the leaking BP well has spewed out as much as 630,000 barrels, making it the worst oil spill in U.S. history.

BP (BP) continues to try ad-hoc fixes, which have included filling the hole with bits of old tires and placing an upside down funnel over it. On Thursday night, the company said it had put a cap on the ruptured well in an attempt to channel the oil to a tanker on the surface.

While hoping for the best, most people are now planning for the worst. That means, at the earliest, waiting until August, which is when BP says a relief well should be completed.

The ruptured well needs to be filled from the bottom. The relief well is supposed to intercept the failed well where it ends, about 18,000 feet underground.

Once the wells intersect, BP will inject massive amounts of heavy mud -- much heavier than the oil -- from the new well into the leaking well. The same pressure that is currently pushing out the oil will also force the mud up the well hole. Once there's enough mud in the failed hole, the leak should stop.

But what if the relief well doesn't work, or takes longer to work than expected? How bad could things get in the Gulf?

How much oil: BP wouldn't say how much oil is in the reservoir below the failed well, saying it was too early in the exploration process to make such estimates.

But it's at least tens of millions of barrels, according to Dave Rensink, president of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists.

If the well was left unchecked, it would flow for years, he said. Deep sea offshore wells generally produce oil for 5 to 20 years.

Ultimately, the reservoir would stop flowing not when it ran out of oil, but when the pressure above it (from 18,000 feet of water and drilling fluids) was greater than the pressure in the reservoir itself.

The relief well: Industry experts say it is likely BP will be able to cut off the flow sometime around August.

"Getting down there and initiating the kill process by August shouldn't be a problem," said Rensink. "BP will be able to get this under control."

Another petroleum engineer agreed. "I don't see any reason why it can't happen," said Ken Arnold, an engineer and oil and gas consultant. "Other than the fact that BP can't get a break, no matter what they do."
BP's $70 billion whipping

Indeed, the successful drilling of the relief well by August remains far from certain.

When a similar blowout occurred off the coast of Mexico in 1979, the state oil company said it could fix the problem with a relief well in three months. The effort ended up taking nearly 11. And that was in a much more shallow location -- 165 feet of water versus 5,000.

The challenge is getting the relief well and the failed well to intersect. It's like trying to hit an object the size of a plate, three miles beneath the earth's surface, said John Hocevar, oceans campaign director for Greenpeace.

Plus, operations will have to be suspended if a hurricane threatens the Gulf.

"Realistically speaking, I'd say we're stuck with this for a long time," said Hocevar. "More likely past August, December would not surprise me at all."

The path of the oil: As the oil continues to leak, the danger is it will soil more sensitive Gulf marshes, he said. Worse, it could head to the Florida Keys, ruining the most pristine coral reefs in the continental United States -- a prime breeding ground for hundreds if not thousands of species.

Beyond the Gulf, there is a danger the oil could get caught up in the Gulf Stream, which would send it up the eastern seaboard.




Hovecar said that even if the Gulf Stream stayed well offshore, significant amounts of oil could get spun off by eddies, and ultimately end up onshore as far north as Maine.

The oil could then follow the Gulf Stream to Europe, although by the time it made landfall over there he said the amount would be significantly reduced.

All of this would impact local economies and wildlife.

A BP spokesman said the company remains confident it can seal the well by August. He noted that seismic imaging technology, which allows engineers to "see" under the ground, has come a long way since the Mexican spill, progressing from 2-D to 3-D or 4-D.

Plus, if workers miss the well the first time, they can back up the drill bit and try again without having to start from scratch.

Rensink, the petroleum geologist, said that the Mexico well was not cased in metal, like the BP one is. With a little bit of luck, the metal should make the well easier to find.

A little bit of luck is just what BP needs right now.



I have decided to pin this topic as I honestly see no end to it. This oil spill and the effects of it could last for generations to come. How sad for our children, grandchildren, etc.

~Fysty~

Sad
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Post by FystyAngel Fri Jun 04, 2010 8:04 pm

Gulf Oil Spill: Oil-Soaked Pelicans Struggle to Stay Alive on Louisiana Shore
On Day 45 of Leak, BP's 'Top Cap' Strategy is Not Working Yet

By MATT GUTMAN, RYAN OWENS and BRADLEY BLACKBURN
June 3, 2010

http://abcnews.go.com/WN/Media/bp-oil-leak-gulf-mexico-cut-containment/story?id=10818311&page=1

As dozens of oil-soaked pelicans turned up on the Louisiana coast today, BP said it could take days before its "top cap" strategy stands a chance of controlling the oil that is still gushing into the Gulf of Mexico.




BP is preparing to lower a containment dome over the newly-cut pipe at the bottom of the Gulf. This morning, engineers successfully cut the lower marine riser pipe using giant shears, but it was a "more jagged cut" that could result in a less-effective seal with the dome, and that might allow more oil to escape, Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen told reporters.

BP CEO Tony Hayward called the successful cut an "important milestone" this afternoon, but he said it would take 12 to 24 hours before the company knows if the containment dome has worked.

"Over the last 36 hours, we have cleared the riser from the top of the well head, and the team is currently working to complete the cleanup operation before we put the cap onto the top of the well," Hayward said.

Officials hope the weight of the 500-foot steel pipeline will force it snugly over the uneven pipe. In the meantime, the uncapped well is an open spigot, belching up to a million gallons of crude into the gulf every day.

Earlier, Allen had predicted that the leak could be largely sealed today.

"They've got the top hat containment device positioned over the top of the well head. And they will be able to lower that down on a lower marine riser package as soon as they make that cut, and that's connected to a ship on the surface," Allen said on ABC News' " Good Morning America," though he acknowledged technical difficulties could cause further delays.

Oiled Pelicans Seen on Louisiana Coast

On the Louisiana shore, meanwhile, dozens of oil-drenched birds have been spotted, struggling under a blanket of black sludge.

Click HERE to learn how you can help the threatened wildlife.

"This is tragic, this is sad, this is literally why we are fighting for our way of life," Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said after seeing an oiled brown pelican.

"We are not only concerned about this bird, but the future -- this bird was just taken off the national endangered species list and now you see the impact of this oil," he said.

Jindal again pressed for barrier islands to be built along the coast, saying that he is "ordering the dredges to be organized."

"We shouldn't have to see this oil coming into our wetlands," he said. "That's why we are not waiting for BP."

BP: More Workers in Place for Cleanup

Today, Hayward said his company and the federal government have expanded their efforts to clean up the spill.

Oil spill: How bad it could get Ap_bir10
A bird is mired in oil on the beach at East Grand Terre Island along the Louisiana coast June 3, 2010. Oil from the Deepwater Horizon has affected wildlife throughout the Gulf of Mexico.
(Charlie Riedel/AP Photo)


"We will be here for a very long time. We recognize that this is just the beginning," he said.

There are now 30,000 workers involved in the effort, Hayward said. Approximately 15,000 workers come from BP and the Coast Guard, while the remainder are either volunteers or National Guard.

On May 27, President Obama said there were 20,000 workers on the job.

Hayward added that 5,000 fishing vessels now are working to clean up oil, also a number higher than in previous reports.

In addition to the containment dome it is preparing, BP may use other methods to try to control the oil flow. Using the same infrastructure built for the failed top kill operation, it will attempt to siphon oil instead of to pump in mud. That technique could begin sometime next week.

Hayward said plans for relief wells are on target for August, and he responded to fears that a hurricane in the interim could force BP to abandon containment efforts.

"At the end of the month, we will introduce more permanent containment/production systems that will be fully sealed, which will be better able to deal with hurricanes," he said.

Oil Expected to Hit Florida Beaches

The cut-and-cap strategy is BP's seventh attempt at controlling the leak. Since it began the operation Tuesday, oil has been gushing out an estimated 800,000 gallons per day, which is 20 percent faster than previously.

Oil has hit at least 125 miles of the Gulf Coast. A slick sheen is just four miles from the Florida coast today, the Coast Guard said. Just yesterday, it was nine miles away from shore.

Allen said the Coast Guard has deployed resources to the Gulf Coast beaches and the "picket line" has been established.

"We are flying more boom back into Alabama this morning, and we have dispatched a group of Coast Guard cutters with skimming capabilities that are down there," Allen said. "We've got helicopters offshore that are doing surveillance, Coast Guard patrol boats we are using for command and control, working with vessels of opportunity. These are local fishermen we have brought on board to help us."

Along the coast, there has been some concern about the health of those fishermen. ABC's Chris Cuomo, who was in the Gulf just yesterday, heard firsthand that many of the fishermen getting sick are too scared to report their illnesses out of fear that they will be fired by BP.

Today, Cuomo set out to answer that question, asking directly -- would BP promise not to fire people who report illnesses? For most of the day the company did not provide a clear answer.

But after hours of reaching out to Unified Command, the Coast Guard and the White House, BP finally came forward with a statement late today which said "workers with health issues are encouraged to report their conditions without fear of reprisal."

A Nuclear Option?

There have been calls for a drastic response to the oil leak, some even suggesting a nuclear explosion to stop the blowout.

"The only technology we've ever had to deal with blowouts very severe is -- a very small-scale nuclear device -- right on top of the oil column, [detonating it] to en capsulate the stuff because it turns the earth into glass," said Matthew Simmons, an energy expert.

Both BP and officials in Washington said a controlled nuclear blast is not on the table.

"That hasn't been seriously briefed to me," Allen told "Good Morning America." "I think we have to run out of a lot of things before we consider something like that. I think that's really on the peripheral of things we ought to be talking about right now."
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Post by Cali Fri Jun 04, 2010 11:00 pm

This is incredibly sad. As far as believing anything BP says at this point, forget it. They will only be trying to minimize the situation. Profits overrode installing safety improvements, just like in that mining disaster. This oil spill will continue to contaminate anything it touches, and the results will be felt for generations.
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Post by Justice4all Sat Jun 05, 2010 9:43 am

Looking at the picture of that bird makes me sick. It is very sad knowing that there is no end in sight.
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Post by Julie Sat Jun 05, 2010 10:15 am

J4A, I agree, the animal pictures are very disturbing. Are there people out there helping the birds & other animals, like you see in the Dawn commercials? Most of the pictures I've seen, have no animal helpers, just oil covered animals.
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Post by Justice4all Sat Jun 05, 2010 9:26 pm

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Post by Piper Sun Jun 06, 2010 9:03 am

My heart just breaks watching these innocent creatures suffer for the love of money and profit. Eleven people lost their lives in the explosion. You've hardly heard any mention of them or their families. Now this.......like Cali said, it will be felt for generations to come. Fishing and shrimping careers have been wiped out as well. It's so very, very tragic. I know they are saying the new pumping efforts are working, but it's too late, the damage is done and will never go away.
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Post by Julie Sun Jun 06, 2010 9:28 am

This will be one for the history books, under "Disaster". I feel so bad for all of those poor animals. Breaks my heart.
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Post by Julie Wed Jun 16, 2010 8:00 pm

So sad..........

Sea creatures flee spill, gather near shore
Scientists say phenomena may signal polluted habitat, loss of fish

By JAY REEVES, JOHN FLESHER, TAMARA LUSH
updated 25 minutes ago

GULF SHORES, Ala. - Dolphins and sharks are showing up in surprisingly shallow water just off the Florida coast. Mullets, crabs, rays and small fish congregate by the thousands off an Alabama pier. Birds covered in oil are crawling deep into marshes, never to be seen again.

Marine scientists studying the effects of the BP disaster are seeing some strange — and troubling — phenomena.

Fish and other wildlife are fleeing the oil out in the Gulf and clustering in cleaner waters along the coast. But that is not the hopeful sign it might appear to be, researchers say.

The animals' presence close to shore means their usual habitat is badly polluted, and the crowding could result in mass die-offs as fish run out of oxygen. Also, the animals could easily get devoured by predators.

"A parallel would be: Why are the wildlife running to the edge of a forest on fire? There will be a lot of fish, sharks, turtles trying to get out of this water they detect is not suitable," said Larry Crowder, a Duke University marine biologist.

The nearly two-month-old oil spill has created an environmental catastrophe unparalleled in U.S. history as tens of millions of gallons of have spewed into the Gulf of Mexico ecosystem. Scientists are seeing some unusual things as they try to understand the effects on thousands of species of marine life.

Read more:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37738626/ns/disaster_in_the_gulf/
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Post by Julie Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:15 am

Here's a Live Stream video link of the oil spill.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/37412412#37412412
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Post by eva Thu Jun 17, 2010 5:57 am

When this first happened I just about died and I said to my husband, "I don't wanna know about this!" When we are watching TV together and we come across it, I say, "Change the channel! I don't wanna know!"

I love wildlife and nature so much. This just sickens me no end. Just this morning news of this came on the radio and I pleaded, "Turn that off! I can't listen!" He replied, "Your not knowing doesn't make it go away!" I said, "I know but it stresses the hell outta me and I can't take it!"

I despise human greed that manifests in the deaths of wildlife and of nature. A crime against nature. Mad
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Post by Piper Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:35 am

I have a very tough time seeing the wildlife suffer. I have been watching Anderson Cooper's coverage though. He's mad as hell. He's done a great job, IMO.
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Post by Julie Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:38 am

I can't even stand it when there is unfortunately a dead animal in the street. I love animals very much. When hubby & I are driving along, if there's a bird or squirrel walking in the street half a block down, I tell him "Watch out for the bird/squirrel." He usually thinks I mean there's one 6 inches in front of us, and he slams on the brakes. Good thing these are side streets, with nobody behind us.
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Post by KariBear Wed Jun 23, 2010 4:03 pm

More Oil Spewing Into Gulf After Accident at Well


(June 23) -- An underwater robot bumped into a venting system on the containment dome on the broken oil well in the Gulf of Mexico, forcing the removal of the cap, the Coast Guard said today.

Adm. Thad Allen also announced the deaths of two people involved in the cleanup operation.

The accident came on the day BP's Bob Dudley took over from CEO Tony Hayward as the company's point man for the spill.

The accident at BP's fractured well caused gas to rise through the vent that transmits warm water down to prevent the formation of ice-like crystals in the cap, Allen said. The cap has been removed to determine whether any such crystals have formed.

Ustream.tv
BP was forced to remove a containment cap from its well in the gulf Wednesday after an undersea robot bumped a venting system, causing a gas problem.
The cap "has been moved off the Deepwater Horizon's failed blowout preventer to ensure the safety of operations and allow the unexpected release of liquids to be analyzed," according to the cleanup's official website.

In the 24 hours before being removed, the cap collected 700,000 gallons of oil.

The Deepwater Horizon drilling platform exploded April 20, killing 11 workers on board and rupturing an oil well 1,500 meters below the surface of the water.

Estimates differ as to how much oil has leaked, with one government study putting the figure at as much as 1.2 million gallons a day.

BP has agreed to set aside $20 billion in an escrow fund for cleanup and compensation of those affected by the massive spill. The company's stock has tumbled since the accident, and credit rating agencies have downgraded its rating.

Allen said one of the two cleanup-related deaths occurred during an accident "regarding a swimming pool." The other person killed was a vessel operator, he said.

"Our thoughts and prayers go out to their families," Allen said. "We know this is a devastating thing to happen."

Allen did not provide further details, but police in Gulf Shores, Ala., said they are investigating the death of a 55-year-old man whose body was found in his boat. The man appears to have shot himself in the head, police said.

http://www.aolnews.com/gulf-oil-spill/article/containment-cap-removed-in-gulf-of-mexico-after-new-accident-at-bp-well/19528161
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Post by KariBear Wed Jun 23, 2010 4:05 pm

Everyone should be Evil or Very Mad over this. It's going to affect us for a very long time to come. not fair
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Post by Estee Wed Jun 23, 2010 6:40 pm

This makes me just want to cry...I feel sorry for everyone that this has affected...It gives me a lump in the pit of my stomach...I pray that a solution can be found fast..There's no telling how long it will take for the ecosystems to recuperate...I'm sure that they won't be restored during the rest of my lifetime...
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Post by KariBear Wed Jun 23, 2010 6:45 pm

Me too Es! I just cringe when I think of the kind of world my grandson and his children are going to be living in when I'm long gone. Crying or Very sad
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Post by Julie Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:26 pm

Great Lakes Companies Offer Oil Cleanup Ideas

by Kate Allt
NBCChicago.com
updated 20 minutes ago

They might be hundreds of miles removed from disaster, but a couple of Midwestern companies are among the many offering up ideas to help clean the oil-coated beaches of the Gulf Coast.

Among them is Gravely of Chicago, a mower company based in Lake Barrington. The company has sent a small crew to Pensacola, Fla., to demonstrate the contraption it claim helps clean debris and litter from beaches.

The Sand Cleaner is an attachment that hooks onto a two-wheel, self-propelled tractor. The device digs four inches into the ground, sifts the sand and separates any solids into a removable container.

"Weve been showing the equipment to the Air Force in the area and to the Mayor of Louisiana," said Gravely's owner, Jill Halloran. "Well be down there for another week or so, traveling through Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida."

A 34-inch machine, Halloran says the equipment is perfect for tight areas and for cleaning the "tar balls" that wash up on the Gulf shores. The Sand Cleaner is capable of cleaning up to one acre of beach per hour, Halloran said.

Meanwhile, a knit pile fabric manufacturing company in Janesville, Wis., has come up with what may seem like an even simpler solution -- wool. Monterey Mills has produced the oil-absorbing fabric for years, and has posted a video to YouTube demonstrating its capabilities in hopes of gaining federal attention.

"Were a very large company that specializes in industrial fabric manufacturing," said company president Daniel Sinykin. "We make the fabric on the end of paint rollers, a fabric that needs to absorb oil without absorbing water, which we think is a perfect solution to the oil spill."

Similar to their YouTube demonstration, Sinykin says the use of the fabric would be relatively simple. A patrol boat would pull the fabric across the water and reeled in when the captain felt the wool was fully saturated.

The 100 percent wool fabric can absorb seven times its weight, or around 30 pounds of oil per yard, Sinykin said. The company can produce enough of the fabric to salvage 20 miles of beachfront every day.

But the good news doesnt end there, as Sinykin says there are many options for use of the wool after it's done its dirty work. The fabric could either be cleansed and reused or incinerated in a coal plant to generate energy. A third option, he claimed, is to leave the biodegradable product to decompose and restore oil to the soil, which BP could then reclaim.

So far, Monterey Mills has yet to be contacted by BP or the government, but Sinykin said they expect a meeting very soon. In the meantime, they plan to head to the Gulf Coast in a few weeks' time and, armed with rolls of wool, attempt to prove their concept.

"We feel terrible for all the people being affected down there," Sinykin said. "Anyone that has the capacity to help should be using all the resources that they can. Thats what we want to do."


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37929185/ns/local_news-chicago_il/

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Post by Julie Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:35 pm

My Mom told me about this poor little baby dolphin who ended up dying. Sad